A great article from www.theglobalguru.com on BRIC, ..and below is the relevant data for Brazil. Brazil is a very big country and has lots of natural resources and talent. I am sure there is a lot of leverage for companies from India , China and Russia to have both source and sell opportunities. Recently the contender for Corus aquisition was a large steel firm from Brazil. For sure the Tata’s will be looking at Brazil for setting up their base.

“Brazil is the country of the future… and always will be.” Much has changed since Charles
De Gaulle’s wry observation. Indeed, Goldman Sachs has anointed the Brazil economy as one of
the fast-growth BRIC economies — one of the top four emerging-market countries. Brazil expects
to become a leading global power between now and 2050.
“Wow! Brazil is big!” exclaimed George W. Bush, after being shown a map of Brazil by
Brazilian president Lula da Silva in November 2005. Indeed, it is. You could fit 12 of Bush’s
home state of Texas into Brazil. Put another way, Brazil is about 90% the size of the U.S., and its
population of 185 million is equal to the United Kingdom, Germany and Italy combined.
As impressive as Brazil’s size is, it’s the large profits made investing in the Brazil stock mar-
ket over the past three years that have caught the attention of U.S. investors. Investing in the Brazil
stock market’s Bovespa index — since it bottomed in 2002 — would have netted you a 220%
gain. U.S investors have done even better, thanks to Brazil’s appreciating currency, the Real. Last
year the Bovespa was up 27%, yet U.S. investors almost doubled that return in a dollar-denomi-
nated ETF (EWZ). Prior to the recent correction, U.S. investors had almost tripled their money in
Brazil over the last two years. No wonder the Brazil stock market has been raising investors’ eye-
brows and opening their wallets.
Investing in the Brazil Economy
The Brazil economy epitomizes the rollercoaster that has been Latin America’s economic
fortune over recent decades. Half a century ago, Brazil was one of the most rapidly growing
economies in the world. It experienced another growth spurt in the early 1970s, growing a China-
like 9.8% a year on average between 1970 and 1974.

But each period of rapid growth was followed by sharp economic slowdowns and dizzying infla-
tion. For much of the 1980s, the Brazil economy grew by less than 1% a year. In the decade 1986-96,
the annual average rate of inflation for Latin America as a whole was more than 180%.
But much like an economic St. Augustine, it looks like Brazil has finally gotten its econom-
ic act together. The architect of this conversion from Sinner to Saint has been Dr. Antonio Palluci,
a medical doctor, and Brazil’s finance minister since 2002. Palluci’s strategy was two-fold. First, ramp up interest rates to whip inflation — much like Paul Volcker did in the late 1970s in the United States. Second, cut government spending and usethe budget surplus to pay back Brazil’s external debt.The success of Palluci’s policies speaks for itself. Inflation is now moving firmly into the lowsingle digits and Brazil’s falling external debt is allowing it to get back on its financial feet. The
Brazil economy also has benefited from good timing. The inflow of dollars from the commodities boom has allowed Palluci to pay off foreign creditors early, including $15.5 billion to the IMF. But Dr. Palluci’s remedy also has inflicted pain and some grumbling from his patient. Thanks to high interest rates and stifled consumption, Brazil’s economic growth has averaged just 2.6% ayear, barely better than the dismal average of the last 15 years. That makes Brazil seem like an economic laggard compared with BRIC rivals India and China with their 7-10% growth rates. But the comparison is unfair. It’s best to think of Brazil as a country on an economic diet. It has to get back into shape before it can race alongside the other top BRIC contenders. But the diet is paying off. The Brazil economy seems to have broken the back of inflation and should grow at about 4 percent this year.

Brazil’s Solid Fundamentals
“Never in the economic history of Brazil have we had the solid fundamentals we have now.”
boasted Lula da Silva in a recent interview. Comparing Brazil’s economy with the one when Lula
took over in 2002 “is like looking at two different economies,” says Vinod Thomas, former head
of the World Bank in Brazil.
To make sure this isn’t just another false start, Brazil must stay the course. Those investing
in the Brazilian stock market panicked when Dr. Palluci resigned in March in the midst of a
domestic political scandal. Populist rhetoric notwithstanding, Palluci’s successor has committed
to following Palluci’s path. Consistency is the only way to insure no more “lost decades,” no more
debt crises or record emergency financial packages for Brazil’s economy.
And what about the recent market turmoil? Unless commodities prices collapse and interest
rates in the U.S. rise sharply, Brazil stock market investments will rebound quickly. The funda-
mentals of Brazil and the other BRIC economies aren’t perfect, but they are much stronger than
during previous market hiccups.



4 Comments to “Brazil Economy - a perspective”

  1. Diane Brown | October 24th, 2007 at 4:26 pm

    Wow! Never knew so much is happening in Brazil. Thanks to BRICWire for great info. I would like to know more about the investment opportunities in Brazil, for short term investment , if somebody knows please add to comments.

    Kudos Editor !

  2. mvats | October 24th, 2007 at 11:26 pm

    Interesting!
    There is indeed much more to Brazil than just soccer.

    Here is one interesting link I came across recently on tropical plantations investment in Brazil.

    http://www.gringoes.com/articles.asp?ID_Noticia=1945

    Excerpt
    “For as little as $84,900 you can buy a 25-acre plot of land, adjacent to a federal highway, with electricity access, and planted with up to 15,000 Guanandi trees.
    Each parcel is expected to generate over US$3 million in revenue over 20 years … “

  3. Sambasivan | October 25th, 2007 at 12:14 am

    Ya its a good deal,..land never depreciates

    Samba

  4. Shakar Srinivasan | October 25th, 2007 at 2:58 pm

    Good effort Samba!

    I’ll keep visiting your website!

    Cheers!

    -S

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